Commercial Real Estate – Santa Cruz
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New York may chase away business as it considers ‘commercial rent control’

posted by: Admin in News, Uncategorized

The “Small Business Jobs Survival Act” is designed to protect small mom-and-pop shops in New York City from rising rent prices. The legislation would require 10-year leases, which could only be be altered with the tenant’s approval, to be offered to commercial tenants at renewal. If the two parties cannot agree on a rent increase, they would have to go through arbitration.

These rules would apply to retail spaces of 10,000 square feet or less, manufacturing spaces of 25,000 square feet or less and office spaces of 10,000 square feet or less. It has been compared by critics to commercial rent control, though it would not specify actual rent increase restrictions.

There are many pros and cons to this bill. Officials warning it could do more to damage the very businesses it is designed to protect.

Source: Brittany De Lea | FOXBusiness

Read more here.

Next Retail Trend Combines Barking and Beer

posted by: Admin in News

Entrepreneurs are tapping into the ever-increasing desire of dog owners to take their furry friends with them everywhere by building private dogs parks that also have a restaurant and bar. These parks are beginning to catch on among landlords digging into ideas for boosting foot traffic to their properties through amenities people want to experience. And landlords pursuing experiential retailing have been willing to front a lot of money and give big breaks on rent to land these dog parks.

For landlords, these dog parks are “increasing dwell time” at retail properties as well as driving more frequent visits. Indoor shopping malls, which owners have sought to reimagine as tenants have emptied them, could be where the dog parks could appear next..

November 26, 2019

Richard Lawson @ Costar

When Bigger Is Not Better

posted by: Admin in News

Professor Thomas Philippon’s book the “Great Reversal” was reviewed in a recent Wall Street Journal column. The column stipulates that most Americans assume that America is the most competitive and innovative Country in the World. The idea that American’s leads the world in innovation and free market opportunity is quickly challenged, as he questions why Americans spend 3-4 times the money on internet as our French brothers, and why cell phone service in America is among the most expensive in the world.

His conclusions are as follows; #1. Through Lobbying and political donations, large American companies can buy protectionist legislation from both sides of the isle. #2. Because the competition is protected, large tech companies (among others) enjoy inelastic demand, that is to say they can raise prices without seeing a significant drop in demand and #3. American industry’s tends to concentrate into few large players in a platform, resulting in less competition for pricing and innovation.

This affects Santa Cruz County Commercial Real Estate as it curtails company formation – small business creates the vast majority of jobs and provides for much of the wage growth. In a prior, but related article, a Journal guest columnist notes that new company formations are at a sluggish rate, slower now than in the last decade. A bright spot would be that women and racial minorities, are starting new business’s at higher rates than ever before, however the gross number of company formations, when contrasted with business closures is down as a ratio.

Kmart is closing more stores..

posted by: Admin in News

And Kmart 270 Mt Hermon Road in Scotts Valley is one of them.

Kmart and Sears has announced that it will be closing 96 stores around the country. The liquidation sales will begin December 2nd with stores expected to permanently close by February 2020.

The downfall of former corporate giants like Kmart and Toys R Us is evidence that the brick-and-mortar retail industry is in jeopardy.  But it also provides opportunity for growth and new giants in our community. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Site for Santa Cruz Nissan Approved!

posted by: Matt Shelton in News

On October 22, 2019, the County Board of Supervisors approved the application by Santa Cruz Nissan to develop a 23,000 SF. This dealership (including repair areas) will be located on the acreage across from Best Buy on 41st Avenue and Soquel Drive.  The Vote was 3-1 with Supervisor Zack Friend voting no.

The supervisors cited the minimal traffic generation from such a large use of the site, and perhaps glossed over the high tax revenue generated from the dealership.

In terms of Santa Cruz County Commercial Real Estate, the redevelopment of this site is a welcomed move, with the area being a long time blight, the site of homeless occupation and vandalism.

The Future of Co-Working Space

posted by: Matt Shelton in News

WeWork, the leader in co-working space, recently had its market valuation drop from $48 billion to $8 billion. Admittedly there are a lot of factors in this drop. Our contention is that in a strong tech environment, the value of renting to 1-4 people is being erased.

Co-Working space really got its start in the years following the recession in 2006 to 2010, when many computer tech people became consultants as there was little growth in the tech sector for full time work. The ability to work in the cloud with other “co-workers” made it possible for an individual to work for anyone, anywhere, from their home – or a Co-Working environment.

This had a strong effect on commercial real estate in Santa Cruz, as several buildings became (and still are) home to Co-Working space. Growth was phenomenal, as groups crossed America building office space for multiple independent tenants. In the parlance of marketing, just how deep is this market? Also, as a client once said, the “tree’s won’t grow to the sky”, meaning all markets have demand growth cycles, and then
saturation. We believe in a market where consultants can work for single companies, the demand for Co-Working space has flattened.

DoorDash Opens Ghost Kitchen

posted by: Admin in News

In Redwood City, DoorDash is opening a Ghost Kitchen where restaurants will prepare meals to be delivered or for pickup without being a place where people go to eat. The facility will give those restaurants access to new customers in neighboring communities without the overhead involved in expanding their brick-and-mortar stores.

For property owners, the facilities can be advantageous. Ghost kitchens can often be set up in spaces that typically go unused, such as basements or parking areas. They can also be located in industrial space, since those sites offer easier access for delivery drivers compared with standard retail space.

Read more here.

What’s going on with Forever 21?

posted by: Admin in News

Los Angeles-based Forever 21 is preparing to file for bankruptcy, potentially closing roughly 700 stores. Company advisers have been working on obtaining a bankruptcy loan package that would give the retailer about $75 million to continue operations during the case. As part of the restructuring plan, the two largest landlords may get a stake in the company. The negotiations are ongoing, and could end without a deal.

75,000 more stores need to close across the US, UBS estimates, as online sales and Amazon grow

posted by: Admin in News

Clothing retailers, consumer electronics companies and home furnishing businesses will need to close more stores across the U.S. as e-commerce sales proliferate, according to UBS.

In a note to clients this week, the investment firm said “store rationalization needs to accelerate meaningfully as online penetration continues to rise.” Assuming online sales’ share of total retail sales in the U.S. grows to 25% by 2026, from 16% today, roughly 75,000 more retail doors, excluding restaurants, need to close, analysts Jay Sole and Michael Lasser said. That means for every 1% increase in online penetration, roughly 8,000 to 8,500 stores need to close. A lot of that growth is being fueled by Amazon, which is expected to account for about half of the U.S. e-commerce market.

Within that 75,000 number, about 21,000 clothing stores, 10,000 consumer electronics stores, 8,000 home furnishing stores and 1,000 home improvement stores should close, UBS estimated, based on the firm’s assumed growth rates of online penetration within each retail subsector. It added about 7,000 grocery stores could close if online grocery penetration rises to 10%, from 2%, by 2026.

UBS also analyzed the productivity of stores across the country, which it said accelerated through 2018, based on the amount of sales made per store.

However, the firm said: “We believe this pace of store productivity improvement is unlikely to be sustained in 2019 as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. … This will likely lead to an acceleration in physical store closures in the upcoming year.”

Already this year, more than 5,000 store closures have been announced by retailers, according to a tracker by Coresight Research. They include GapVictoria’s Secret, Charlotte Russe and Gymboree — notably many clothing companies.

Lasser and Sole also said, however, that as more stores close “it should help the store productivity of surviving locations.”

Source: CNBC

A Recession May Be Coming, but Not for Commercial Real Estate Investors

posted by: Admin in News

Financial headlines have been full of worries about a possible recession and a downturn in commercial real estate markets. Recessions often precipitate a decline in real estate markets, but long periods of increasing construction and rising property prices may pose risks of their own. Stock prices fell sharply in December in a bout of turmoil that both reflected these concerns and fed the fears.

Lately, though, we’ve seen increased evidence that this was a false alarm. Sure, there has been troubling economic news from abroad, interest rates have moved higher, and the economic expansion is one of the oldest on record. But the challenges today are typical of the types of risks that the economy faces regularly, without heading into a recession. Indeed, as former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said recently, ”I don’t think economic expansions just die of old age… they get murdered.”

What are the typical weapons found at the scene of such a macroeconomic crime? A detailed reading of the historical record indicates three types of excess that have preceded every recession and commercial real estate downturn: overbuilding, overheating, and over-indebtedness.

There still could be bumps in the road, of course. Key risks to keep an eye on include possible impacts of trade wars and Fed policy, especially if inflation should rise again. And while commercial property prices today do not look overheated, an acceleration in price growth above and beyond net operating income could signal trouble ahead. For now, however, 2019 appears set for a favorable performance for the economy, and for commercial real estate.

Calvin Schnure is Senior Vice President, Research & Economic Analysis at NAREIT. Read full article here.